Super Tuesday Breakdown: Biden's Swift Rise Really Doesn't Have to Be the End

Less than two weeks ago, Bernie Sanders was the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for president. His campaign looked certain to head into the Democratic National Convention with a plurality of the delegates and his supporters were urging his competitors to stand down. But then came the Jim Clyburn endorsement, the South Carolina primary and a landslide victory by Joe Biden that caused a seismic shift in the race for the Democratic nomination.

First, Tom Steyer dropped out. Then Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar followed. And then — true to everything that they’ve stood for throughout this campaign — Klobuchar and Buttigieg endorsed Joe Biden ahead of the Super Tuesday primaries. Even Beto O’Rourke, the former Texas Congressman who ended his presidential bid in November, came off the sidelines to give the former Vice President a boost. And just like that, the entire landscape of the race changed.

Though numbers continue to trickle in, Biden’s the projected winner in 10 of the 14 Super Tuesday states, with Sanders claiming the other four. Mike Bloomberg’s losses convinced him to abandon his quest for the nomination and lend his support — and, presumably, his money — to Joe Biden. According to reports, Elizabeth Warren is currently huddled with her team considering a path forward.

As of today, Biden is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination and likely will go into the convention with the plurality of the delegates. But given how volatile the race has been, it’s entirely possible that, two weeks from now, the scenario could be entirely different. There’s still time to change the future but whether or not the Sanders campaign is willing to make adjustments to their overall strategy remains a question.

Your Super Tuesday Breakdown

Alabama — 52 Delegates

Winner: Joe Biden

Unlike most of the other Southern primaries, Alabama stands out as having disappointing turnout, with a competitive Republican primary for Doug Jones’ Senate seat drawing a high number of GOP voters out to the polls. While the results aren’t terribly surprising — Biden’s able to coast to a victory on strong supporter from women and black voters — Bloomberg’s “campaign” in Alabama probably cost Biden a delegate. However, Sanders also underperformed in Alabama, relative to his performance in 2016.

In the aforementioned Senate race, former Trump Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, is trying to get his Senate seat back but has run into a formidable primary challenge in former Auburn football head coach, Tommy Tuberville. Though Sessions boasts a slight lead, he’ll have to face Tuberville in a run-off on March 31. On the plus side — you know, for basic decency — Alabama Republicans did learn from their mistake in 2017 and soundly rejected Roy Moore this time around.

Arkansas — 31 Delegates

Winner: Joe Biden

Arkansas is a bit of an outlier, compared to the other Southern states with Super Tuesday contests, as it doesn’t boast a sizable contingent of black voters. Even without that base of support, though, Biden was able to dominate in “the Natural State.” There’d been limited polling in Arkansas but there was enough evidence to suggest that Bloomberg’s campaign was gaining some traction in the state. While conventional wisdom might suggest that Bloomberg’s presence would detract from Biden’s numbers, Sanders’ underperformance, relative to 2016, suggests that it might not be quite as simple as we think.

California — 415 Delegates

Winner: Bernie Sanders

Sanders won the biggest prize of the night, hands down.

Exit polls show Sanders winning a plurality of male and female voters, as well as replicating his strong performance with Latinx voters in Nevada. He continues to dominate with younger voters and did better than expected with older voters. It’ll be days, possibly weeks, before we know how the final vote count shakes out — and, ultimately, like Clinton’s win in 2016, the difference in delegate allocations might not be that substantial — but, for now, the Sanders campaign can ride that victory into the next slate of contests.

Two House races worth keeping an eye on, as numbers out of California funnel out: First, the CA-25th, where a slew of competitors are vying to fill the seat once held by bisexal former Rep. Katie Hill. There’s been some concern that a hacking scandal, involving of Hill’s former employees, might impact the run of Christy Smith, the Katie Hill-endorsed Assemblywoman running for the seat, but Smith managed to make the runoff in a crowded field. The bigger surprise may be that Smith’s opponent in the runoff likely won’t be former Rep. Steve Knight, the Republican ousted by Hill in 2018, but Republican defense contractor Mike Garcia.

Also? Keep an eye on the CA-53, where Georgette Gómez is vying to fill a seat left open by the retirement of Rep. Susan Davis. Gomez is vying to become the first out queer Latina in Congress She got a nice boost recently, thanks to an endorsement by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , but she’s facing tough competition from Sara Jacobs, a billionaire heiress benefitting from the largess of her grandparents’ Super PAC. Gomez and Jacobs appear to be headed for a run-off.

Don’t want to see ads? Join AF+

Colorado — 67 Delegates

Winner: Bernie Sanders

While the shift from caucus to primary stymied Sanders in Minnesota, Colorado gave the Vermont Senator a strong win on Tuesday night. According to CNN exit polls, Sanders outperformed his opponents in nearly every measurable category. That said, Sanders’ win in Colorado wasn’t resounding enough to prevent his opponents from encroaching on his delegate hall: Biden, Bloomberg and Warren all did well enough in the Centennial State that they’ll all walk away with delegates.

A trend that we’ve seen throughout these primaries and debates showed up again in MSNBC’s exit polling from Colorado: Elizabeth Warren is, by far, the most well-liked candidate in the field. And yet… she still finished fourth in the field… make of that what you will.

Maine — 24 Delegates

Winner: Too Close to Call Joe Biden

The battle between Biden and Sanders in Maine remains too close to call and, even if a winner is determined, it’s hard to imagine one of the candidates not triggering a recount to secure their share of the state’s 24 delegates. Warren is just over the viability threshold and if that number holds, she’ll leave Maine with another delegate.

Update: the Associated Press has called Maine for Joe Biden (h/t @Al)

BREAKING: Joe Biden wins the Democratic presidential primary in Maine. #APracecall at 1:57 p.m. EST. #Election2020 #MEprimary https://t.co/lGfinjTqT4

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) March 4, 2020

But there are two things out of Maine worth highlighting: First, this was the state’s first presidential primary in 20 years and the change in format boosted turnout and had the state scrambling for additional ballots. That additional turnout boosted the campaign of former Brewer Mayor Kevin O’Connell in his quest to join the State House. Second, Maine voters rejected an effort by anti-vaxxers to block a law that would limit when parents can waive vaccination requirements for their children.

Massachusetts — 91 Delegates

Winner: Joe Biden

Particularly after Biden scored endorsements from Buttigieg, Klobuchar and O’Rourke, the voices calling for Elizabeth Warren to exit the race reached a fever pitch. But after her embarrassing showing in her home state of Massachusetts, those calls are going to get even louder. Deafening, perhaps.

Don’t want to see ads? Join AF+

It’s hard to assess what happened in Massachusetts. Going into the primary, no poll showed Biden with a lead in the commonwealth and no poll showed Warren falling to third place overall. Like so many states, Massachusetts had a healthy contingent of late deciding voters and they disproportionately broke for Biden. The misogyny that’s been at play during this primary — that has, at times, erased the field’s female candidates from the national discussion — seemingly impacted Warren’s run in her home state. According to the exit polling, Warren lost white men across the board, both those who’d graduated from college and those who hadn’t, by substantial margins. That probably cost her the win.

Minnesota — 75 Delegates

Winner: Joe Biden

In 2016 primary campaign, Bernie Sanders won Minnesota, 62-28. This year, he lost the state not to Amy Klobuchar, the state’s senior senator, but to Joe Biden, in, perhaps, the most startling upset of the night. The difference? In 2016, Minnesota used a caucus system to divvy out delegates and this year, the state moved to a primary which drove up turnout substantially. Still, though, how did Sanders — who had jumped into the lead in the latest pre-Super Tuesday poll — end up losing the state to Biden? Two factors: first, exit polls are showing a considerable number of late deciders and second, despite the fact that they didn’t vote for her for president, Minnesota voters do genuinely like Klobuchar. Her endorsement, on the eve of the Minnesota primary, with so many voters still undecided, probably helped push Biden over the edge…and the former Vice President seemed to agree in his victory speech.

North Carolina – 110 Delegates

Winner: Joe Biden

Called just as the polls closed, the Associated Press called North Carolina for the former Vice President. The coalition that powered Biden’s win in the Tar Heel state is the same that we saw across the country on Super Tuesday: later deciders, black voters and voters who say their top issue is who can beat Donald Trump in November. Sanders did well with younger voters — earning a healthy majority of voters under 29 — but turnout among that age group remains paltry.

In addition to the presidential race, North Carolina had a full slate of contests on their Super Tuesday primary ballot, including the opening volley in what might be the most expensive US Senate race in the country. Recent polls have shown former State Senator Cal Cunningham running close to or ahead of incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis. Republicans were so concerned about Cunningham’s strong showing against Tillis, they created a political action committee to run ads touting Cunningham’s primary opponent, Sen. Erica Smith. Their gambit did not work, though, as Cunningham sailed to a comfortable victory.

Oklahoma — 37 Delegates

Winner: Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders fell short of repeating his 2016 victory in the Oklahoma primary on Super Tuesday, finishing 13 points behind Biden in second place. Bloomberg, who’d made a significant investment in Oklahoma finished in a distant third. Neither Bloomberg nor Warren earned enough votes to qualify for delegates.

What’s interesting about Oklahoma’s outcome is the way it crystallizes that this primary has become a national contest. From what I can tell, Joe Biden never even stepped foot in Oklahoma as a candidate and his campaign had no offices there. Sanders had one office in the state and last visited in September. Bloomberg, who debuted his economic justice plans in the shadows of Black Wall Street, visited Oklahoma on a few occasions and opened two campaign offices in the state, couldn’t gain traction. All the conventional wisdom about campaigns really needs to be thrown out of the window… we’re in a new era.

Tennessee — 64 Delegates

Winner: Joe Biden

With deadly tornadoes claiming the lives of at least 24 Tennesseans yesterday, the state’s primary rightfully almost feels like an afterthought. Somehow even with the storm’s upheaval, Tennessee voter turnout increased by 38 percent over 2016. The former Vice President managed to outperform recent polling in Tennessee and add another Southern state to his campaign’s firewall. The state should go down as a missed opportunity for the Sanders campaign, though, as exit polls reflect a weaker showing for Biden among black voters and higher young voter turnout for Sanders, compared to the other Southern Super Tuesday states.

The Community Foundation of Middle Tennessee’s Emergency Response Fund is accepting donations to to support the affected communities.

Texas — 228 Delegates

Winner: Joe Biden

Since early January, polls for the Texas primary had shown Bernie Sanders with a comfortable lead but in the days since Biden’s win in South Carolina, the tide began to turn… decisively. The “Democratic Unity” rally the Biden campaign staged in Dallas, along with the endorsement of former Congressman Beto O’Rourke, helped bolster the former Vice President’s effort and ultimately gave him an impressive win. That said, watch the delegate math in Texas, it could yield a closer race than preliminary numbers suggest.

According to a recent analysis by The Guardian, Texas closed more polling places than any other state since 2012. Unsurprisingly, most of the closures disproportionately hit black and Latino areas. Those suppressive efforts manifested last night near Texas Southern University, a historically black college in Houston, where voters were forced to wait up to seven hours to cast their ballot. SEVEN HOURS! The Supreme Court’s decision to gut the Voting Rights Act, coupled with Republican suppressive efforts, produced their desired effect of disenfranchising black and brown voters.

Don’t want to see ads? Join AF+

Three other noteworthy stories from Texas: First, in the race to challenge John Cornyn in November, MJ Hegar came out on top but she’ll head to a run-off against State Senator Royce West or labor activist Cristina Ramirez, who are currently locked in a battle for second place. Also? Jessica Cisneros fell just short of her bid to unseat the House’s most conservative Democrat, Henry Cuellar. In better news: Gina Ortiz Jones, who narrowly lost her campaign in the TX-23rd in 2018 (thanks Beto!), won her race for the Democratic nomination in that district and will compete for an open seat following Rep. Will Hurd’s retirement.

Utah — 29 Delegates

Winner: Bernie Sanders

Like Maine and Minnesota, Utah made the shift from being a caucus state in 2016 to being a primary state in 2020. But unlike Maine and Minnesota, in Utah Sanders was able to carryover his success in the caucus to the primary and, ultimately, claim victory. Because much of Utah’s voting was done by mail, we don’t have exit polls to explain Sanders’ win but given how thoroughly he out-performed his polling, it seems likely that Sanders got a significant boost from liberal voters in Salt Lake County.

Vermont — 16 Delegates

Winner: Bernie Sanders

Given what happened to Warren in Massachusetts, Sanders’ success in his home state of Vermont is noteworthy, particularly since it may have been the only state in which Sanders picked up an outright majority of the votes. I was surprised, though, to see Biden do well enough in the state to earn a share of its delegates.

Virginia — 99 Delegates

Winner: Joe Biden

In mid-February, Virginia polls reflected the overall tenor of the race: Sanders jumping into the lead, Biden’s standing slipping and Bloomberg surging into third place, thanks to a significant investment in advertising. But after the tenth debate and the South Carolina primary, things began to shift, with Biden reclaiming the lead and opening up a sizeable margin against the field. Like North Carolina, Biden’s lead had grown so substantially that networks were able to call the commonwealth as soon as polls closed at 7PM.

The best news out of Virginia, in my estimation, is that Democratic voter turnout is up significantly over both the 2016 and 2008 (!!!) primaries. It reflects a level of energy and ethusiasm that we really haven’t seen thus far, which is an absolute necessity to unseat the incumbent president. There was some speculation that after passing slew of progressive legislation like a $15 minimum wage, ratifying the ERA and an assault weapons ban, Democrats might see some sign of a backlash but Virginia’s numbers don’t bare that out.